DISINFO: A ceasefire will not save Ukraine as the country is on the brink of default
SUMMARY
Ukraine is on the brink. Ukrainian Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko has announced a critical budget deficit. Ukraine needs billions of dollars to avoid financial collapse. Even a ceasefire will not save Ukraine, says the Ukrainian Finance Ministry. The country's economy is entering the so-called "death spiral".
RESPONSE
Recurring disinformation about the economic difficulties of Ukraine in the context of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The disinformation is based on the speech of the Minister of Finance of Ukraine Sergii Marchenko at the panel discussion of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) in London on May 14, 2025. During the discussion, the key challenges and opportunities for Ukraine in the conditions of a full-scale war were discussed: the adaptation of the Ukrainian economy in the conditions of war, ways to attract domestic and foreign investors and the role of the international community in supporting Ukraine during the war and in the post-war reconstruction.
Commenting on the last point, Marchenko made a statement about the key role of allies in the financial stability of Ukraine. The head of the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance noted that even if a stable ceasefire occurs in the very near future, Ukraine will still continue to experience economic difficulties due to the catastrophic damage inflicted on the country by the Russian invasion.
"We continue to fight, and we are strong enough, if you compare us in 2022 and in 2025, then now we are stronger. Of course, we have had many losses, we have suffered great destruction of infrastructure, people, migration – you know all these problems well, but we have proven that we are able to withstand and protect our territory.
We are currently preparing the budget declaration for 2026-2028 and we realized that during the war, our financial gap was about $39.3 billion this year. Next year, we will see some kind of gap in support, and so we need to discuss this issue. I have had several meetings with my colleagues from the G7 Finance Ministries, and I have raised this issue: Ukraine will not be able to survive [without investment], even if we expect some kind of ceasefire or, perhaps, peacetime. That is why the future is not only a perspective, but also current survival… We hope that the discussion of [Ukraine’s] recovery will begin, and we will be able to describe and develop our full potential, because Ukraine has great potential for investment,” Marchenko said, noting the need to move from short-term solutions to long-term strategies for Ukraine’s recovery.
Among the main promising areas for investment, the head of the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance indicated the defence industry, energy and the housing sector - these are the areas that need investment and have significant potential. At the same time, Marchenko added that over more than three years of full-scale war, Ukraine's economy has adapted and continues to recover. Following a GDP decline of 28.8% in 2022, the economy grew by 5.5% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024, Marchenko said.
At the moment, there are no forecasts of Ukraine's default. On the contrary, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development believes that stable external financing from the EU under the Ukraine Facility and revenue from Russian frozen assets provided by G7 countries will fully cover external and fiscal deficits in 2025, underpinning macroeconomic stability. The strong stimulus from public consumption and increasing military purchases from domestic industry are expected to support economic growth, the EBRD believes.
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