DISINFO: French scientist established that sanctions made the Russian economy stronger
SUMMARY
Emmanuel Todd demonstrates that the West is going to collapse while Russia is moving towards victory. Todd predicts a victory for Russia, calling it inevitable. He even gives the date: 2027.
In addition to the increase in the standard of living and life expectancy, Russia's low unemployment rate has made significant progress in the development of the economy, and the sanctions imposed by the West have worked in reverse: they have developed the industrial fabric and activity in Russia while they slowed down activity in the West.
RESPONSE
Pro-Kremlin disinformation narrative on sanctions on Russia and their impact.
The writings of E. Todd, who is not an economist, have been criticised by his peers, such as Olivier Schmitt or Anna Colin Lebedev, as biased and ideologically driven. The methodology has been described as problematic, the statistics have been cherry-picked (selecting only the statistics that validate the theory and discarding others), and only two quoted sources are published after the fall of the Soviet Union.
This disinformation story is part of what some experts have labelled Russia’s economic war propaganda, aimed at convincing the world of the futility of the sanctions imposed on Russia for its aggression against Ukraine and the need to remove them. By portraying Russia’s economic situation as positive and directly linking it to decisions adopted by Vladimir Putin, this disinformation story also aims to promote Russia’s authoritarian system and its top figures.
Actual data shows a very different picture (see here and here for two well-researched summaries of the economic situation of Russia at the end of 2024). For example, the Russian ruble has been following a downward trend for over a decade, and plummeted in the last quarter of 2024, reaching a record low. The liquidity of Russia's National Wealth Fund (NWF) more than halved between 2022 and 2024, with no improvement in sight for 2025. Although Russia’s oil and gas revenues grew in 2022, they fell again in 2023 and are expected to fall even further in coming years.
There is mounting evidence of Russia’s economic troubles, such as overheating and likely an upcoming stagflation, and record unemployment rates of around 2% are a sign of enormous labour shortages. Russia’s Central Bank was recently forced to raise its main interest rate to 21%, the highest in decades. Both elements combined are taking a serious toll on Russian businesses. Russia’s military budget has tripled since 2021, to more than double the expenditure on social services, and together with Russia's security agency budget, it will now account for 40% of the total state budget. Also, Russia's military production is struggling to replace what is being massively destroyed on the battlefield, food prices are skyrocketing, and while consumer inflation is officially at 8,5%, many analysts think the real figure is much higher. According to some data, inflation since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 reached 70% in 2024.
Read also stories such as: Russia has only grown stronger in the last few years, or Putin has shown Russia’s economic supremacy to the world, or Instead of crushing Russia, sanctions led to US debt and Europe’s freezing, or Russia became the World's 4th economic power thanks to the war in Ukraine, or Russia grows despite EU sanctions.