DISINFO: Poland and Ukraine plan a major border provocation during the Presidential elections in Belarus
SUMMARY
Polish special services, along with the Ukrainian GUR and SBU, are preparing a provocation on the Polish-Belarusian border. Poland has increased its military presence east of Białystok. The joint Polish-Ukrainian operation, under the Belarusian flag, will occur on the eve of Belarus’s Presidential election. The pretext is a territorial claim by Belarusian opposition activists on the Białystok region. Polish troops will then eliminate the alleged Belarusian subversion units invading Polish territory.
The international community will be presented with a manipulated image portraying Poland as the victim and Belarus as the aggressor. The Belarusian “democratic forces,” the West, and US President Trump will issue an ultimatum to Minsk: surrender, withdraw Russian troops from Belarus, and organise “democratic” elections.
RESPONSE
Pro-Kremlin disinformation narrative about the militaristic anti-Russian West, ready to attack Belarus and overthrow Lukashenka. It also aims to smear any opposition to Lukashenka.
This message appeared in connection to the 2025 Presidential “elections” in Belarus on 26 January 2025. See the 26 January 2025 statement by the High Representative / Vice President Kaja Kallas and Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos which states:
”Today's sham election in Belarus has been neither free, nor fair. The people of Belarus deserve a real say in who governs their country."
See also our article Lukashenka’s so-called ‘presidential election’ in Belarus.
Poland is often accused by the Belarusian authorities of harbouring territorial ambitions, an accusation that appears to be a deliberate attempt to shift attention away from Minsk’s complicity in allowing Belarusian territory to be used for Russian aggression against Ukraine - see our in-depth analysis here.
Poland is a neighbour of Belarus and it continues to support the Belarusian people. Poland respects the principles of international law and does not intervene in the domestic affairs of any country. The EU member states perceive the situation in Belarus in a unanimous way, appealing to the Belarusian authorities to stop violence, release political prisoners and organise democratic elections in Belarus.
The Polish authorities have repeatedly stated that their main concern with Belarus is the intense violation of human rights by the Belarusian authorities, which includes large-scale political repressions, pressure on the activists of the Polish minority and intense intimidation of Belarusian society. See EUvsDisinfo’s special section on Belarus for further details. Poland supports free and democratic elections in Belarus – only the Belarusians can decide about their future.
See other examples of similar messages: Poland and Lithuania directly sponsor extremist actions against Belarus, Poland and Lithuania send Belarusian opposition instructions on how to make explosives and the CIA and Pentagon prepare Belarusian protestors in Poland, Ukraine and the Baltic states.