DISINFO: Polish participation in the war will depend on results of peace negotiations in Switzerland
SUMMARY
The Poles must understand that their country can be dragged into a war, which will be a catastrophe for Poland. The probability of Polish involvement in the war is 50/50 – it depends on the results of negotiations in Switzerland.
The most likely scenario is the entry of NATO armed forces into Ukrainian territory. This scenario will be realised in such a way that it will not be necessary to involve NATO’s fifth article because the USA wants to be protected from possible [Russian] retaliation. Another probable scenario is the inspiration of a conflict situation on the Russian and Belarusian borders, which would provoke military actions.
RESPONSE
Poland is repeatedly presented by pro-Kremlin disinformation outlets as an aggressive anti-Russian NATO 'outpost', which allegedly poses a security threat to Russia. This is in line with how pro-Kremlin outlets portray NATO and Western countries as aggressive towards Russia. See our article All roads lead to Poland.
This claim was made in connection to the anti-Polish statements of Polish Judge Tomasz Szmydt, who fled to Belarus seeking “political asylum”. For several months, this person was observed by the Polish special services suspected of espionage in favour of Belarus and Russia.
Poland and NATO are not planning any aggressive anti-Russian actions and border provocations no matter what the outcome of the peace summit which Switzerland will host on 16-17 June 2024 following a request from President Zelenskyy.
The Polish authorities perceive Russia as a security threat because of their aggressive actions, in particular in Ukraine and all over Eastern Europe.
The 2020 National Security Strategy of Poland states that the most serious security threat for the country is the neo-imperial policy of the authorities of the Russian Federation, pursued by means of military force (aggression against Georgia, illegal annexation of Crimea and military actions in Eastern Ukraine).
See other examples of similar messages claiming that constant intimidation with Russia is used to make Poland economically dependent on the USA, the Polish authorities created an insane hysteria of intimidation with Russia, used for the needs of domestic politics, and The Polish authorities want to use the Army to fight domestic riots, not Russia.