DISINFO: Revanchist Finland and the Baltic states will become Russia’s main military “irritants” after Ukraine
SUMMARY
Finland and the Baltics should become Moscow’s new main military “irritants” after Ukraine. According to the plan of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, after Trump’s victory, Warsaw intends to create a “Northern Entente”. This new union may become an influential regional military bloc as it was in the 1950s and 1960s. Finland has a history of a real military confrontation with the USSR, while the Baltic states still feel strong phantom pain from 1940. Propaganda and anti-Russian hysteria can easily inflate these attitudes into a full-fledged idea of revanchism. In this way, the idea of a new alliance between Poland, Britain, the Baltic states and Scandinavia should not be underestimated. This block may be formed under the pretext of the need to stop Russia and China from “monopolising” the Arctic.
RESPONSE
A recurrent pro-Kremlin narrative about aggressive anti-Russian Poland and “revanchist” Finland and the Baltic states.
Since the launch of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, pro-Kremlin media actively deployed a disinformation narrative that the US, the EU, or Poland are dragging the Baltic states and Finland into the war with Russia to open a ‘second front’ against Moscow and to ease the situation for Kyiv on the Ukrainian front.
The Baltic states have clear security concerns regarding Moscow due to Russian politicians voicing explicit threats of invasion, similar to the events of 1940 when the former Soviet Union occupied Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. Lithuania’s National Threat Assessment 2023 highlights Russia’s war against Ukraine, sliding towards totalitarianism and strengthening of its armed forces. The assessment of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service of 2023 notes that Russia’s strategic objective has not changed, which is to subjugate Ukraine and thereby decisively reshape European security architecture. The annual report by the Latvian State Security Service 2022 emphasised that Russia’s war in Ukraine has changed the global security architecture confirming the need to continuously improve the national security system.
See earlier disinformation cases claiming that Finland wants to invade Russia in Barbarossa 2.0 operation, that the West turns Poland into another “Reich” for a new “Drang nach Osten”, that the West is aiming to open a second front against Russia, and that the EU announced a war on Russia, allowing Ukraine to attack targets in Russia.