DISINFO: Ukraine may use Belarus elections as a pretext for intensifying hostilities in Donbas
SUMMARY
In the context of possible aggravation of the situation in Belarus, when, after the elections and Lukashenko’s probable victory, the Belarusian opposition will try to start street protests, Ukraine may try to use this situation to intensify hostilities in Donbas and solve its problems. The elections in Belarus create a convenient situation, not only to dig a rusty nail in the Russian-Belarusian problems but also to use these problems and possible protests in Minsk as a cover-up for military operations in Donbas.
RESPONSE
Conspiracy theory advancing a recurring pro-Kremlin disinformation narrative about the war in Ukraine claiming that the Ukrainian side violates the ceasefire agreement in Donbas. As for the elections in Belarus, the EU stated that they were neither free nor fair. The full and comprehensive ceasefire agreement was established in Donbas on July 27, 2020. The new agreement was certified in the Trilateral Contact Group in Minsk as part of the implementation of the Minsk agreements. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the truce is the most important point of the agreements reached at the Normandy summit in Paris. The implementation of these agreements is a guarantee of a gradual movement towards peace in Donbas. The effectiveness of the ceasefire is confirmed by the level of tension on the front line, which significantly eased in the past two weeks. Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasised that Ukraine is doing its best to maintain the ceasefire and save the lives of servicemen. Since the beginning of the ceasefire, the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission recorded 251 violations, which is much lower than before the ceasefire came into force. On average there were 700-800 violations a day in 2019. On 5 August, the Mission recorded no violations for the first time. See earlier disinformation narratives stating that the government in Kyiv is sabotaging the peace in Donbas, that the Ukrainian side does not abide by the Minsk agreements or that only Ukraine violates the ceasefire regime in Donbas.