DISINFO: Ukraine’s results on the battlefield are catastrophic, it has lost 300,000 people
SUMMARY
Ukraine’s results on the battlefield are catastrophic. In these two years of conflict, Ukraine reached well over 300,000 dead, and the territory that Russia keeps now hasn’t moved practically a single kilometre. We are possibly seeing the beginning of the end.
RESPONSE
The claims are demonstrably false, part of a wider ongoing pro-Kremlin disinformation campaign through multiple channels to exaggerate the number of Ukrainian casualties in the counteroffensive by providing baseless figures. The ultimate goal of this narrative is to undermine international support for Ukraine’s self-defence against Russian aggression, by portraying it as a hopeless fight.
Although the actual number of dead and wounded Ukrainian soldiers remains elusive -and some observers on the ground reported heavy casualties and a ratio of up to 20% of armory damaged or destroyed in the early days of the counteroffensive, which quickly fell to 10% as the Ukrainian army adapted-, no serious observer has suggested a number nearly close to these 300,000 dead stated in this disinformation story. Prior to the offensive, internal estimates of the US Defence Intelligence Agency in February 2023 disclosed in the so-called Discord Leaks put the figure of 15,500-17,500 Ukrainian soldiers dead and 109,000-113,500 wounded, compared to 35,500-43,000 Russian soldiers deadly casualties and 154,000-180,000 injured. In May, European governments estimated the Ukrainian figures at 13,000 dead and 35,000 wounded, and Russia’s at 185,000 dead and 555,000 wounded, according to internal EU memos seen by Euractiv. After the start of the counteroffensive, Ukrainian authorities have acknowledged 100 to 200 deadly casualties per day, which would amount to more than 20,000 dead in one month. In any case, very far from the massively inflated numbers of this disinformation story.
The allegation that Ukraine didn’t advance a single kilometer is also false. In 2022, Ukraine was able to recover over 54% of the territory previously occupied by Russia. And since the start of the counteroffensive in 04 June, while Ukrainian troops are being slowed by the massive use of land mines by the Russian army, by mid-July 2023 Ukraine had recovered around 253 square kilometres -more than what Russia was able to capture in the previous six months- and were advancing near Bakhmut. Ukrainian military leaders and foreign experts have explained that the priority of the Ukrainian army is to prevent further casualties while slowly disrupting Russian supply lines and eroding Russian defences.
See other examples of similar disinformation narratives, such as claims that Ukraine has lost 680 aircrafts and almost 10,000 tanks since the start of Russia’s military operation, that Western weapons are of no help to Ukraine’s failing counteroffensive, that Russia is methodically demilitarizing Ukraine, or that Ukraine’s defeat is coming and is widely acknowledged in the West and Kyiv alike.