The Kremlin’s self-fulfilling curse 2

On1 the international stage, this has been a very intense and fast-moving week, with numerous high level events and geopolitical infections points. From the escalation (and hopefully de-escalation) of the Israel-Iran conflict and US strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities, to a historic NATO Summit in The Hague, to European leaders’ expected doubling down on defence and supporting Ukraine at the European Council meeting, it has all been a scramble for the Kremlin’s disinformation machinery to keep up.

So, the Kremlin did what the Kremlin does best. It fell back on pushing old lies about alleged Western aggression and the seemingly perpetual victimhood of Russia. In effect, the Kremlin tried to capture the broad international visibility of these high-level events to give credence to Russia’s twisted worldviews.

How dare they build defences?

The false narrative of alleged NATO expansion and aggression towards Russia has long since been one of the core elements used to instigate a siege mentality in Russia to rally support for the Kremlin’s policies, especially pursuing an unjustifiable war of aggression against Ukraine.

So, ahead of the 24-25 June NATO Summit, the Kremlin’s disinformation mouthpieces once again sought to portray Allied defence efforts as aggressive toward Russia and to conjure the perception that increased defence spending is a clear indication of NATO’s aggressive intent. There was another oldie played in the Kremlin’s repertoire – the bizarre claim that the very existence of NATO is a threat to Russia. Or, how about this one – NATO created the myth of Russian aggression because it wants to control taxpayer money. Or this one – NATO defence spending will create an unbearable debt and ruin Europe.

Desperately looking for the cracks

Some pro-Kremlin commentators sought to provide a bit of an optimistic counter-balance to the doom-and-gloom narrative of NATO’s historically unprecedented defence spending boom. So, they set out to either push the misleading narrative that NATO is divided and these alleged divisions are an existential internal threat to the Alliance, or to downplay the significance of the agreed 5% benchmark. Seems more like wishful thinking, considering the Summit’s outcomes.

Ultimately, by pursuing a fundamentally imperialistic foreign policy, exerting threats, violence and aggression against its neighbours; and unilaterally launching the largest war in Europe since WWII, Russia created a self-fulfilling curse. The more Moscow convinced itself that NATO harbours aggressive designs vis-à-vis Russia, the more aggressive it became, and Russia’s inexcusable actions compelled the Allies to boost defence spending to a historic high. And no amount of pro-Kremlin disinformation and information manipulation will make this simple truth go away.

Europe as the new baddie

Since the increase of defence spending will be largely borne by the European Allies, of course the Kremlin was quick to cast Europe as the new baddie in town. Recent comments by EU High Representative/Vice-President Kaja Kallas about the importance of sustained support to Ukraine drew particular ire and were used to justify the pro-Kremlin narrative of an allegedly aggressive and ‘Russophobic’ Europe. Combine that with the deliberation of the European Council to go after the Russian ‘shadow fleet’ in the 18^th sanctions package, and the myth of a belligerent Europe is sustained.

Long-term effort to cement the Kremlin’s myths

However, for Moscow, pushing falsities about alleged, threatening Western aggression is not an ad-hoc measure to be deployed just in time for big international gatherings. In fact, the Kremlin runs a sustained effort of historical revisionism, including rewriting and replacing history books in schools to indoctrinate Russian children and youth with the myth of Russia as the eternal victim and noble defender. All to glorify Russian militarism and justify past and future wars.

A bit of high-level event envy

Finally, perhaps to distract for Russia’s international isolation, the Kremlin also sought to blow the importance of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum out of proportion, praising the allegedly exceptionally international scale of the event this year. But the key takeaway from this feel-good forum was evidently Putin’s speech to the participants. While the Kremlin skipped the substance and sang praises to Putin’s virility for delivering ‘the longest speech in the forum’s history’, we took away something else. What struck a chord was Putin’s quip, ‘Wherever a Russian soldier sets foot, that’s ours.’ What an oddly imperialistic thing to say for a nation that never starts any wars.

Don’t be deceived.

Also on our EUvsDisinfo radar this week:

• As the self-professed defender of all that is decent and moral in this world, the Kremlin is always quick to blame the notorious ‘Anglo-Saxons’ for all the worlds’ ills. Real or imagined, it matters little to Moscow. So, the Kremlin spreads false claims that the CIA is undermining traditional values in Moldova. This is a classic case of pro-Kremlin disinformation, spread in the context of the celebration of a Pride March in Moldova’s capital. Such baseless allegations seek to appeal to homophobic views, falsely portraying pro-LGBTIQ+ activists and supporters as pawns of the Atlantic alliance in a geopolitical game. The exploitation of homophobia is a well-established pro-Kremlin disinformation technique.
• A champion of wishful thinking, the Kremlin also tried to claim that Russia is backed by a global majority. This claim was made in the context of a statement by EU HRVP Kaja Kallas that ‘Russia poses a 360-degree threat in the world’. But the reality is very different. The United Nations General Assembly has repeatedly condemned Russia’s invasion. Only a small group of states consistently supports Russia, such as Belarus, Syria, and North Korea. That’s hardly ‘a global majority’.
• Russia sees a mirror image of itself wherever it looks. So, it is no surprise when the Kremlin channels Russia’s own twisted imperialism to claim that France is colonising Romania and preparing it for war with Russia. Romania is a sovereign country, and as a member of the EU and NATO, it participates in multilateral decision-making frameworks and is not forcibly subjected to them. Describing a democratically elected government as a puppet is also a recurring pro-Kremlin attempt to cast doubt on the legitimacy of democratic institutions and the will of its electorate when they does not suit Russia’s geopolitical ambitions.